Market news from 2nd Photon Inverter Conference: Power-One uses ninja skills to become 2nd largest inverter mfr; US poised to grow

The 2nd PHOTON inverter conference was held in Berlin last month.  Here is a press release of what was discussed in terms of market trends:  http://www.photon-international.com/newsletter/document/43631.pdf

Here's the executive summary:
- PowerOne increased production nearly sixfold (!) year over year from 2009 to 2010, on the strength of new installations in Italy
- The overall demand for inverters has decreased, while supply has increased.  In the short to medium term, this should lower the cost of inverters as a percentage of BOS
- SMA, the world's largest manufacturer of string inverters, sees little reason for the use of module integrated inverters and power optimizers (shock!)
- The US is finally getting on board to drive new inverter technology development
- The fastest growing segment of the inverter market, not surprisingly, is the DMPPT segment

New webinar on DMPPT available on-demand

I recently presented a live web seminar on DMPPT topics.  The main audience was Europe, but the information is relevant to other regions as well, particularly the US and Canada where microinverters are very popular. 

Here is a synopsis of the event:
Microinverters and DC power optimizers use maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithms to increase the overall system efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) installations. Many converter and inverter algorithms are tested under static IV conditions, which may not replicate a real solar panel. In this seminar, we will explore the technology behind these tracking techniques and what tools are needed to verify dynamic MPPT accuracy and efficiency. Special focus is given to the topic of solar array simulation, a test methodology which offers off-the-shelf emulation of various environmental conditions such as temperature, shading, and dawn/dusk scenarios.
Who should view this webcast:Engineers who design and test innovative low to medium power devices that run off of solar energy.

Click the link below to view the webinar, and feel free to contact me if you have any questions.
DMPPT Technology Trends and Test Methods

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2nd Day Highlights: SMA and Danfoss vs Enecsys vs Tigo, SolarEdge and SolarMagic...FIGHT!!

By far the most entertaining expert panel of the conference was on system optimization.  The title of the discussion was "Power Optimizers - the way to maximized energy yield and high rates of return?"  Panelists were:
Ralph Nolte, National Semiconductor (maker of SolarMagic power optimizer chip)
Lior Handelsman, SolarEdge (maker of combo power optimizer/inverter)
Bernd Neuner, Tigo Energy (maker of power optimizer module)
Andreas Umland, SMA (world's largest mfr of traditional inverters)
Bent Sloth Lave, Danfoss (traditional inverter mfr)
Alaa Mohd, Enecysys (maker of microinverter)

Here's a brief synopsis of how it went down:
1) National Semi - We make reference designs that you can put into your panel, microinverter, junction box, inverter, or charge controller to make the system smarter and safer.  We've tested increases in system efficiency from 62% to 82%.  We are the most flexible.
2) Tigo - We offer centralized brains that connect to dumb agents at the panel.  Compensation of impedance mismatch provides more power, active monitoring reduces O&M costs, and remote output control offers increased safety.  We are the most innovative.
3) SolarEdge - Our solution offers maximum shading tolerance with a total system cost (power optimizer and inverter) similar to cost of traditional inverter alone.  We are the most cost effective.
4) Enecsys - Our microinverters use thin film capacitors rather than electrolytic, providing more reliability.  Dealing with AC on microinverters is safer than dealing with high voltage DC on string inverters.  We are the easiest to install and maintain.
5) Danfoss - There are three types of MPPT inverters: central, string, and module level.  We've done our own outdoor testing to compare efficiency of inverters with and without power optimization.  Under no shadow conditions, power optimizers reduce overall yield.  Under shadow conditions (tree, pole, chimney) the yield is the same.  You guys all suck.
6) SMA - Including power optimization in the plant increases Total Cost of Ownership, raises the number of potential failure points, is harder to install and maintain.  The money saved through improved yield doesn't offset this risk unless the installation is very heavily shaded.  The value proposition doesn't make sense.

The audience was heavily in favor of the Goliaths, clapping heartily after SMA commented that the costs don't add up.  One analyst asked why SMA seemed to be badmouthing microinverter technology after they had recently acquired OKE Services from the Netherlands:  http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/sma-enters-microinverter-biz-through-acquisition/
The answer was that they are keeping tabs on the "niche technology" but they don't expect it to become a major competitive threat.

We shall see.  The DMPPT guys are certainly growing at a faster clip than the traditional inverter folks, but they are starting from a much smaller overall number.  What do you all think?

2nd Day Highlights: Components, Supply Chain, Power Optimizers and System Monitoring

The second day of the inverter forum focused on supply chain issues, electrical connection technology, power optimization technology, and system control and monitoring.  The overall tone of the day was less technical, more salesy in my opinion, and also quite a bit more contentious. (The panel that discussed distributed power optimization vs traditional inverter MPPT was especially fun; I'll do a special post for that one!  Stay tuned.)

There was also an interesting discussion given on how to choose the optimum inverter type for a new PV installation, presented by Dr. Berhhard Plail of Siemens.  As one might expect, the answer was basically, "well...it depends."  There are CapEx and OpEx cost tradeoffs that must be analyzed to compare overall system cost of many string inverters in series vs. one central inverter.  In brief, for large utility type installations where the sun is predictable and the ground is stable, a central inverter makes the most sense because maintenance and operational issues can be handled with a contract up front.  For small scale residential installations, areas where shading is a problem, or where the topography mandates special panel placement, string inverters with power optimization at the panel level can maximize energy harvest.

1st Day Highlights - PV module performance controversy?

Perhaps the most provocative presentation given on the conference's first day came from Uwe Hupach of the TUV Rheinland Group, a certification house.  He showed a slide showing a distribution of power deviation in a sample of several hundred PV modules from global manufacturers.  The theme was how to mitigate risk factors that decrease overall power generation from a PV plant by implementing smarter testing and monitoring methods.

Sorry for the fuzzy quality.  I took the picture using my iPhone from halfway across the room.  Here's the gist:
- Nominal power specified by the module mfrs is the black dotted line way to the right of the graph
- A large majority of the power deviations tested fell under the nominal power level.  My expectation for most electronic devices is that there should be a normal distribution of tested values above and below the spec.
- I was suprised at how high the percentage is of tested modules that were more than 10% below the nominal specified value.  If you consider the total contribution level of PV installations worldwide (several tens of GW), a ten percent degradation in performance is a huge amount of lost production.
- The test was conducted on a random sampling of modules without mfr knowledge.  When tests were conducted with the mfrs prior knowledge, and they submitted modules for the test, the distribution was normal.
- The question was asked about a similar test for inverter performance.  TUV has not conducted such a study yet.

Let me know what you think.  Are you surprised by this?  Is it just par for the course in a growing industry with new players and vague standards?  What does this say about the need for rigorous test and measurement practices?  Please leave a comment.

1st Day Highlights - Grid stability and bankability of PV

The conference discussions were dominated by two themes: grid stability and bankability of PV.  Some interesting claims that were made by the various market researchers, renewable energy financiers, and PV system technology experts:
- Estimates for 2010 new PV installations ranged from 15-17GW
- Estimates for 2011 new PV installations ranged from 17-20GW
- Upsides are emerging solar markets like Italy, India, Canada
- Risks include recently announced solar taxes in Czech Republic, reduction of feed in tariffs in Germany, mounting political pressure from traditional electrical utilities
- Prices for inverters are expected to go down, for a couple of reasons.  1) As PV module pricing rockets down, the portion of overall system cost related to inverters, mounting, and other BOS components goes up.  This will get more and more scrutiny for future installations. 2) The component shortage last year resulted in many inverter manufacturers doubling or tripling their orders for lower level parts.  As capacity increases and demand decreases, there may be an oversupply in the first half of 2011.
- With new PV installations growing so rapidly, the contribution of electricity to the grid from non traditional sources is going up.  PV generation is more volatile and less predictable than fossil fuel power plants, and obviously varies throughout the day and the seasons.  This variability can create instabilities in the grid, which was designed around old-school power plants.  The impact is greatest on the low voltage network, where the majority of small scale residential inverters feed in.  Inverters in the near future will need to support active and reactive power control to minimize potential grid disturbances from too much voltage being turned on or turned off too quickly.